- Published: 06 January 2024 06 January 2024
- Hits: 573 573
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- Published: 30 December 2023 30 December 2023
- Hits: 629 629
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- Published: 06 December 2023 06 December 2023
- Hits: 763 763
Introduction: Explore the world of pivot points and discover their significance in trading. This article delves into the pivot point indicator, shedding light on its historical relevance and practical applications in the contemporary trading landscape.
Understanding Pivot Points: Pivot points, a time-tested tool in trading, remain widely utilized today for analyzing market dynamics. These points leverage the high, low, and closing prices from the previous day to gauge market sentiment. A market trading above the pivot point is considered bullish, while trading below indicates a bearish trend.
Pivot Points in Action: These points serve as markers for identifying potential support and resistance levels within an overarching market trend. Much like traditional support and resistance, traders leverage pivot points to predict where prices might find support after a decline or encounter resistance following an upward movement.
Calculation Methodology: The standard five-point system is commonly employed for calculating pivot points. This involves using the previous day's high, low, and close, along with two support and two resistance levels. The formula is as follows:
- Pivot Point (P) = (Previous High + Previous Low + Previous Close) / 3
- Support 1 (S1) = (Pivot Point x 2) - Previous High
- Support 2 (S2) = Pivot Point - (Previous High — Previous Low)
- Resistance 1 (R1) = (Pivot Point x 2) — Previous Low
- Resistance 2 (R2) = Pivot Point + (Previous High — Previous Low)
Application on Trading Platforms: Pivot points can easily be incorporated into trading strategies by adding these price Pivot Points to Limit Buy and Sell GTC orders. Additionally, traders can opt for weekly pivot points for longer-term trading perspectives.
Pivot Point Trading Strategies: Utilizing pivot points can assist in identifying the overall trend, with upward movement through pivot points signaling an uptrend and vice versa. While not infallible, this system, akin to basic support and resistance principles, aims to leverage previous key levels to identify potential future levels of interest.
Support and Resistance Pivot Point Strategy: Traders can enhance entry strategies by focusing on support (S1 and S2) and resistance (R1 and R2) pivot points. Rather than chasing market rallies or downtrends, a more effective approach involves waiting for a dip to the support level (S1) followed by a rally to the resistance level (R1). This strategy aligns with the broader trend, allowing traders to capitalize on pullbacks in uptrends and retracements in downtrends.
Jessie Livermore said:
"To invest or speculate successfully, one must form an opinion as to what the next move of importance will be in a given stock (Crypto), Bitcoin BTCUSD.
"Speculation is nothing more than anticipating coming movements.
"In order to anticipate correctly, one must have a definite basis for that anticipation."
Livermore believed that if you thought a stock or (Crypto), Bitcoin BTCUSD would move in a certain way, you should enter a trade as early as possible after the market had "confirmed" your judgement.
The Pivotal Point
Jesse Livermore wrote:
Whenever I have had the "patience" to wait for the market to arrive at what I call a "Pivotal Point" before I started to trade; I have "always" made money in my operations.
Jessie Livermore said:
“I never benefited much from a move if I did not get in at somewhere near the beginning of the move. And the reason is that I missed the backlog of profit which is very necessary to provide the courage and patience to sit thourgh a move until the end comes – and to stay through any minor reactions or rallies which were bound to occur from time to time before the movement had completed its course.”
Hey Readers, I have been cleaning up huge with "Pivotal Point" speculation in Bitcoin BTCUSD!
Here is a Link that I have used for years to give me the "Pivot Points" on Bitcoin BTCUSD on Barchart: https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/%5EBTCUSD/cheat-sheet
What I do is set Limit Buy GTC orders at S1, S2 and S3 to Buy the Dip on the retracement. For example at: S1 Buy $100 BTCUSD, at S2 Buy $200 BTCUSD and at S3 Buy $300 BTCUSD.
Then on the Sell side I set Limit Sell GTC orders at R1, R2 and R3. For example: R1 Sell $100 BTCUSD, at R2 Sell $200 BTCUSD and at R3 Sell $300 BTC.
I also DCA $100 worth of Bitcoin BTCUSD every day. Whew, when BTCUSD blows past R1, R2 and R3 in a Bull market, talk about Bull Market Breakout!
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- Published: 04 December 2023 04 December 2023
- Hits: 697 697
On Friday, the dollar index (DXY00) experienced a decline of -0.23%. Early gains for the dollar were abandoned later in the day, resulting in moderate losses attributed to weak U.S. economic news and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The November U.S. ISM manufacturing index contracted more than anticipated, adding a dovish dimension to Fed policy considerations. Dollar losses intensified after both Fed Chair Powell and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed their endorsement for the Fed to maintain interest rates at the forthcoming December 12-13 FOMC meeting.
Friday's U.S. economic reports presented a mixed picture for the dollar. On the downside, the November ISM manufacturing index held steady at 46.7, falling short of expectations for an increase to 47.8 and marking the 13th consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. Conversely, October construction spending exceeded expectations, rising by +0.6% m/m compared to the anticipated +0.3% m/m.
Dovish remarks from the Fed on Friday contributed to the dollar's decline. Fed Chair Powell indicated a reluctance to change interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, stating, "It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance or to speculate on when policy might ease." Additionally, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted, "There's no evidence that inflation has stalled at 3%, and I think it's still on track to get to 2."
Market expectations currently assign a 1% likelihood of a +25 basis points rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and a 0% chance for the same hike at the subsequent meeting on January 30-31, 2024. The markets are anticipating a 78% probability of a -25 basis points rate cut at the March 19-20, 2024, FOMC meeting and are fully pricing in a -25 basis points rate cut (a 151% chance) at the April 30-May 1, 2024, FOMC meeting.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) registered a decline of -0.10% on Friday, reaching a 2-week low. The euro initially advanced but retreated later in the day due to dovish comments from ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau, who asserted, "Barring any shock, ECB rate hikes are over." The Eurozone November S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward, contributing to the initial uptick.
ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau reiterated that ECB rate hikes are unlikely, and discussions about rate cuts may occur in 2024. The Eurozone November S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.4 to 44.2 from the initially reported 43.8.
Swaps tied to ECB meeting dates indicate an 81% likelihood of the ECB reducing its benchmark rate by -25 basis points at the March 7 meeting, with more than full pricing (+183%) for the same -25 basis points rate cut at the April 11 ECB meeting.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) experienced a decline of -0.93% on Friday, with the yen reaching a 2-1/2 month high against the dollar. A drop in T-note yields and dovish comments from Fed officials Powell and Goolsbee supported the yen. Japanese economic news on Friday, including an unexpectedly lower Oct jobless rate, contributed to yen strength, along with an upward revision to the Japan November Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
Friday's economic data for Japan exceeded expectations, supporting the yen. The November Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.2 to 48.3 from the previously reported 48.1. Additionally, the October jobless rate unexpectedly fell by -0.1 to 2.5%, indicating a stronger labor market compared to the anticipated no change at 2.6%. On the flip side, Q3 capital spending ex-software rose by +1.7% y/y, falling short of expectations for +3.4% y/y.
On Friday, February gold (GCG4) closed up +32.50 (+1.58%), and March silver (SIH24) closed up +0.197 (+0.77%). Precious metals prices posted moderate gains, with gold reaching a record high and silver climbing to a 6-3/4 month high. A weaker dollar and declining global bond yields supported precious metals. Dovish central bank comments further fueled demand for precious metals as a store of value. Fed Chair Powell's signal to maintain interest rates at the December 12-13 FOMC meeting and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee's endorsement of steady Fed policy, coupled with ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau's statement, "Barring any shock, ECB rate hikes are over," contributed to the upward momentum of precious metals.